Mirassol
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.35
Athletico-PR
31%
Fair odds 3.27
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Mirassol | Draw | Athletico-PR | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Elo model | 46% | 27% | 27% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Mirassol and Athletico-PR are rated almost level (1375 and 1371).
-
Home advantage Favours Mirassol
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Mirassol's chance of winning and takes the same from Athletico-PR's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Mirassol
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.2. Mirassol score 0.8 a match against an average side (12th in Brasileirão); Athletico-PR concede 1.7 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Mirassol
Mirassol WLDWL, lost 6 rating points; Athletico-PR LLDLW, lost 27 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
MirassolAthletico-PRMirassol
3/10 over 2.5
12 scored
11 conceded
09/02
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/07
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/30
11/03
Athletico-PR
7/10 over 2.5
17 scored
21 conceded
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/09
10/12
10/17
10/24
10/30
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Mirassol | Draw | Athletico-PR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mirassol | 28%3.51 | 5%18.80 | 2%57.80 |
| Level | 13%7.88 | 16%6.29 | 11%9.50 |
| Athletico-PR | 2%54.64 | 5%21.19 | 19%5.32 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Mirassol wins1Athletico-PR wins- L Athletico-PR vs Mirassol 1-0
1 meetings in the data. Results shown from Mirassol's side.