Mito
33%
Fair odds 2.99
V-Varen Nagasaki
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.46
The prediction
- 1–112%
- 1–29%
- 2–18%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Mito | Draw | V-Varen Nagasaki | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| Elo model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours V-Varen Nagasaki
V-Varen Nagasaki are rated 21 points above Mito (1330 to 1309), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Mito
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Mito's chance of winning and takes the same from V-Varen Nagasaki's.
-
Attack against defence Favours V-Varen Nagasaki
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.5. Mito score 0.7 a match against an average side (17th in J1 League); V-Varen Nagasaki concede 2.0 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours V-Varen Nagasaki
Mito LLLLL, lost 49 rating points; V-Varen Nagasaki LLWLD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
MitoV-Varen NagasakiMito
4/10 over 2.5
7 scored
21 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
V-Varen Nagasaki
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
15 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/21
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Mito | Draw | V-Varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mito | 24%4.14 | 7%13.59 | 4%25.13 |
| Level | 9%11.49 | 14%7.06 | 16%6.15 |
| V-Varen Nagasaki | 1%94.34 | 3%29.59 | 21%4.78 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.