Modena
Model pick
64%
Fair odds 1.57
Padova
15%
Fair odds 6.75
The prediction
- 2–011%
- 1–011%
- 1–110%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Modena | Draw | Padova | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 64% | 22% | 15% |
| Elo model | 55% | 26% | 19% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Modena
Modena are rated 68 points above Padova (1401 to 1333), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Modena
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Modena's chance of winning and takes the same from Padova's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Modena
Expected goals 2.0 to 0.9. Modena score 1.1 a match against an average side (6th in Serie B); Padova concede 1.9 (20th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Modena DWWLW, gained 10 rating points; Padova DWWLL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
ModenaPadovaModena
7/10 over 2.5
18 scored
10 conceded
08/22
08/28
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/27
10/31
Padova
3/10 over 2.5
10 scored
11 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Modena | Draw | Padova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Modena | 38%2.61 | 3%31.06 | 1%— |
| Level | 22%4.56 | 13%7.86 | 5%18.80 |
| Padova | 4%26.53 | 5%20.75 | 9%10.88 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Modena wins2Padova wins- L Modena vs Padova 1-2
- L Padova vs Modena 2-0
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Modena's side.