Moreirense
29%
Fair odds 3.44
Santa Clara
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.41
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Moreirense | Draw | Santa Clara | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 29% | 29% | 42% |
| Elo model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Santa Clara
Santa Clara are rated 47 points above Moreirense (1520 to 1473), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Moreirense
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Moreirense's chance of winning and takes the same from Santa Clara's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Santa Clara
Expected goals 1.0 to 1.3. Moreirense score 1.0 a match against an average side (16th in Primeira Liga); Santa Clara concede 1.0 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Moreirense WWLDW, gained 19 rating points; Santa Clara WLWDW, gained 21 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Moreirense
Moreirense won 3, drew 2 and lost 1 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
MoreirenseSanta ClaraMoreirense
7/10 over 2.5
13 scored
17 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/30
09/04
09/09
09/14
10/09
10/25
10/31
Santa Clara
4/10 over 2.5
15 scored
6 conceded
08/10
08/15
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/26
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Moreirense | Draw | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | 19%5.39 | 6%16.89 | 3%37.45 |
| Level | 10%9.94 | 19%5.33 | 18%5.62 |
| Santa Clara | 1%— | 4%27.55 | 22%4.62 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Moreirense wins1Santa Clara wins- W Moreirense vs Santa Clara 1-0
- W Santa Clara vs Moreirense 0-1
- D Santa Clara vs Moreirense 1-1
- W Moreirense vs Santa Clara 1-0
- L Moreirense vs Santa Clara 0-2
- D Santa Clara vs Moreirense 2-2
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Moreirense's side.