Motherwell
Model pick
49%
Fair odds 2.05
Hibernian
25%
Fair odds 3.93
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Motherwell | Draw | Hibernian | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Elo model | 45% | 27% | 27% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Motherwell and Hibernian are rated almost level (1477 and 1480).
-
Home advantage Favours Motherwell
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Motherwell's chance of winning and takes the same from Hibernian's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Motherwell
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.1. Motherwell score 1.1 a match against an average side (5th in Scottish Premiership); Hibernian concede 1.5 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Motherwell WDLLL, lost 21 rating points; Hibernian DLLLD, lost 26 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Motherwell won 6, drew 6 and lost 6 of the last 18 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
MotherwellHibernianMotherwell
6/10 over 2.5
12 scored
19 conceded
08/30
09/02
09/05
09/15
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/25
10/28
10/31
Hibernian
6/10 over 2.5
10 scored
15 conceded
08/09
08/30
09/03
09/06
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/25
10/28
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Motherwell | Draw | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell | 31%3.25 | 5%20.53 | 2%64.10 |
| Level | 16%6.23 | 15%6.69 | 9%10.57 |
| Hibernian | 3%39.68 | 5%20.49 | 15%6.70 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
6Motherwell wins6Hibernian wins- W Hibernian vs Motherwell 1-2
- W Hibernian vs Motherwell 0-1
- D Motherwell vs Hibernian 0-0
- D Hibernian vs Motherwell 1-1
- W Motherwell vs Hibernian 2-0
- L Hibernian vs Motherwell 3-1
- L Motherwell vs Hibernian 0-3
- W Hibernian vs Motherwell 1-2
- L Hibernian vs Motherwell 3-0
- D Motherwell vs Hibernian 1-1
18 meetings in the data. Results shown from Motherwell's side.