Nacional
34%
Fair odds 2.91Bookmakers 32%
Academico Viseu
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.55Bookmakers 40%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Nacional | Draw | Academico Viseu | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 34% | 26% | 39% |
| Elo model | 30% | 28% | 43% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Best price on offer | 3.05 | 3.40 | 2.40 |
Team news
- Ulisses Rocha Out
- Léo Santos Out
- Wesley Gasolina Out
- Igor Liziero Out
- Filipe Soares Out
Coach João Henriques named the same five injured players; positions for Wesley Gasolina and Filipe Soares are unverified, and regular-starter/long-term flags for the last three are not confirmed by reports.
No absences reported
Coach Bruno Pinheiro reported no injured or suspended players; team manager Rui Carvalho is suspended for 30 days after the Rio Ave match, which does not affect the playing squad. Sports Mole says Igor Milioransa has not been in a matchday squad since gameweek two and could miss out again, but no official reason was given.
Allowing for this news: Nacional 34%, draw 26%, Academico Viseu 39% (xG 1.36 – 1.47). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: ojogo.pt, jm-madeira.pt, diarioviseu.pt, abola.pt
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Academico Viseu
Academico Viseu are rated 111 points above Nacional (1533 to 1422), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Nacional
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Nacional's chance of winning and takes the same from Academico Viseu's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.5. Nacional score 1.0 a match against an average side (14th in Primeira Liga); Academico Viseu concede 1.3 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Academico Viseu
Nacional LWLLL, lost 28 rating points; Academico Viseu WWWWW, gained 37 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Nacional 32%, Academico Viseu 40%).
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
NacionalAcademico ViseuNacional
5/10 over 2.5
10 scored
19 conceded
08/10
08/16
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/25
11/01
Academico Viseu
7/10 over 2.5
15 scored
12 conceded
08/09
08/15
08/22
08/29
09/06
09/20
10/10
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 47%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Nacional | Draw | Academico Viseu |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional | 21%4.74 | 6%17.33 | 3%34.48 |
| Level | 12%8.33 | 15%6.66 | 15%6.52 |
| Academico Viseu | 2%54.64 | 5%22.17 | 22%4.64 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.