Nagoya Grampus
Model pick
55%
Fair odds 1.83
Avispa Fukuoka
19%
Fair odds 5.23
The prediction
- 1–013%
- 1–112%
- 2–011%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Nagoya Grampus | Draw | Avispa Fukuoka | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Elo model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus are rated 33 points above Avispa Fukuoka (1319 to 1286), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Nagoya Grampus
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Nagoya Grampus's chance of winning and takes the same from Avispa Fukuoka's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Nagoya Grampus
Expected goals 1.6 to 0.8. Nagoya Grampus score 0.8 a match against an average side (14th in J1 League); Avispa Fukuoka concede 2.1 (16th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus LDDWW, gained 23 rating points; Avispa Fukuoka LLLLW, lost 29 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus won 5, drew 2 and lost 2 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Nagoya GrampusAvispa FukuokaNagoya Grampus
6/10 over 2.5
11 scored
17 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
Avispa Fukuoka
7/10 over 2.5
8 scored
20 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/21
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Nagoya Grampus | Draw | Avispa Fukuoka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nagoya Grampus | 33%3.02 | 2%46.30 | 0%— |
| Level | 19%5.30 | 16%6.08 | 4%26.25 |
| Avispa Fukuoka | 3%30.03 | 7%15.20 | 15%6.48 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Nagoya Grampus wins2Avispa Fukuoka wins- W Nagoya Grampus vs Avispa Fukuoka 1-0
- D Avispa Fukuoka vs Nagoya Grampus 1-1
- L Avispa Fukuoka vs Nagoya Grampus 1-0
- D Nagoya Grampus vs Avispa Fukuoka 0-0
- L Avispa Fukuoka vs Nagoya Grampus 1-0
- W Nagoya Grampus vs Avispa Fukuoka 2-1
- W Avispa Fukuoka vs Nagoya Grampus 2-3
- W Nagoya Grampus vs Avispa Fukuoka 1-0
- W Nagoya Grampus vs Avispa Fukuoka 1-0
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from Nagoya Grampus's side.