Nice
Model pick
53%
Fair odds 1.90
Troyes
23%
Fair odds 4.38
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Nice | Draw | Troyes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| Elo model | 55% | 26% | 19% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Nice
Nice are rated 67 points above Troyes (1479 to 1412), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Nice
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Nice's chance of winning and takes the same from Troyes's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Nice
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.1. Nice score 1.2 a match against an average side (12th in Ligue 1); Troyes concede 1.5 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Nice
Nice WWLWW, gained 38 rating points; Troyes WDLLL, lost 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Nice
Nice won 3, drew 0 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
NiceTroyesNice
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
12 conceded
05/17
08/22
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/23
10/30
Troyes
3/10 over 2.5
7 scored
17 conceded
05/09
08/22
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Nice | Draw | Troyes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nice | 34%2.96 | 5%20.75 | 2%65.79 |
| Level | 17%5.97 | 14%7.15 | 9%11.55 |
| Troyes | 3%37.17 | 5%21.37 | 13%7.63 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Nice wins1Troyes wins- W Troyes vs Nice 0-1
- W Nice vs Troyes 3-2
- W Nice vs Troyes 1-0
- L Troyes vs Nice 1-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Nice's side.