Nijmegen
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.29Bookmakers 35%
Rennes
33%
Fair odds 3.05Bookmakers 40%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Nijmegen: 44% here, 35% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Nijmegen | Draw | Rennes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 44% | 24% | 33% |
| Elo model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 35% | 25% | 40% |
| Best price on offer | 2.66 | 3.88 | 2.52 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Rennes
Rennes are rated 35 points above Nijmegen (1556 to 1521), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Nijmegen
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Nijmegen's chance of winning and takes the same from Rennes's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Nijmegen
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.6. Nijmegen score 1.5 a match against an average side (6th in Eredivisie); Rennes concede 1.3 (11th best defence in Ligue 1).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Nijmegen
Nijmegen WLDWD, gained 8 rating points; Rennes DLWDL, lost 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Rennes
Bookmakers rate Rennes higher than the model does: Nijmegen 35% against the model's 44%, Rennes 40% against 33%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
NijmegenRennesNijmegen
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
19 conceded
09/12
09/17
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Rennes
7/10 over 2.5
17 scored
17 conceded
09/11
09/16
09/19
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/30
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 61%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Nijmegen | Draw | Rennes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nijmegen | 28%3.58 | 6%17.36 | 3%35.34 |
| Level | 13%7.46 | 12%8.22 | 12%8.49 |
| Rennes | 3%37.17 | 5%20.66 | 19%5.38 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.