Nijmegen
26%
Fair odds 3.83
Twente
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.95
The prediction
- 1–110%
- 1–29%
- 0–27%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Nijmegen | Draw | Twente | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 26% | 23% | 51% |
| Elo model | 31% | 28% | 41% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Twente
Twente are rated 98 points above Nijmegen (1619 to 1521), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Nijmegen
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Nijmegen's chance of winning and takes the same from Twente's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Twente
Expected goals 1.4 to 2.0. Nijmegen score 1.5 a match against an average side (6th in Eredivisie); Twente concede 1.0 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Twente
Nijmegen WLDWD, gained 8 rating points; Twente WWWWL, gained 30 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Twente
Nijmegen won 2, drew 3 and lost 5 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
NijmegenTwenteNijmegen
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
19 conceded
09/12
09/17
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Twente
5/10 over 2.5
27 scored
7 conceded
09/09
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 0-1
- 1-3
- 0-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Nijmegen | Draw | Twente |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nijmegen | 16%6.16 | 6%17.24 | 4%23.75 |
| Level | 9%11.63 | 12%8.55 | 18%5.70 |
| Twente | 2%59.88 | 4%23.09 | 30%3.34 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Nijmegen wins5Twente wins- D Twente vs Nijmegen 1-1
- D Nijmegen vs Twente 3-3
- L Twente vs Nijmegen 2-0
- L Nijmegen vs Twente 1-2
- W Nijmegen vs Twente 1-0
- D Twente vs Nijmegen 3-3
- L Twente vs Nijmegen 4-0
- L Nijmegen vs Twente 0-1
- L Nijmegen vs Twente 0-2
- W Twente vs Nijmegen 1-2
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Nijmegen's side.