Nott'm Forest
Model pick
46%
Fair odds 2.20
Chelsea
29%
Fair odds 3.49
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Nott'm Forest | Draw | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 46% | 26% | 29% |
| Elo model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Chelsea
Chelsea are rated 26 points above Nott'm Forest (1586 to 1561), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Nott'm Forest
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Nott'm Forest's chance of winning and takes the same from Chelsea's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Nott'm Forest
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.2. Nott'm Forest score 1.4 a match against an average side (14th in Premier League); Chelsea concede 1.1 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Chelsea
Nott'm Forest LDLLL, lost 31 rating points; Chelsea WLWWL, gained 8 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Nott'm Forest won 2, drew 3 and lost 3 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Nott'm ForestChelseaNott'm Forest
3/10 over 2.5
7 scored
13 conceded
05/24
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/23
10/31
Chelsea
7/10 over 2.5
20 scored
17 conceded
05/24
08/24
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/18
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Nott'm Forest | Draw | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest | 26%3.89 | 4%22.47 | 2%62.50 |
| Level | 17%5.82 | 15%6.77 | 10%9.65 |
| Chelsea | 3%31.75 | 6%17.92 | 17%5.81 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Nott'm Forest wins3Chelsea wins- W Chelsea vs Nott'm Forest 1-3
- L Nott'm Forest vs Chelsea 0-3
- L Nott'm Forest vs Chelsea 0-1
- D Chelsea vs Nott'm Forest 1-1
- L Nott'm Forest vs Chelsea 2-3
- W Chelsea vs Nott'm Forest 0-1
- D Chelsea vs Nott'm Forest 2-2
- D Nott'm Forest vs Chelsea 1-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Nott'm Forest's side.