OFI Crete
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.95
Levadeiakos
23%
Fair odds 4.30
The prediction
- 1–112%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| OFI Crete | Draw | Levadeiakos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 51% | 25% | 23% |
| Elo model | 50% | 27% | 24% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours OFI Crete
OFI Crete are rated 28 points above Levadeiakos (1376 to 1348), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours OFI Crete
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to OFI Crete's chance of winning and takes the same from Levadeiakos's.
-
Attack against defence Favours OFI Crete
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.1. OFI Crete score 0.9 a match against an average side (5th in Greek Super League); Levadeiakos concede 1.8 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours OFI Crete
OFI Crete WWWLL, gained 21 rating points; Levadeiakos WDDLL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
OFI Crete won 3, drew 3 and lost 3 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
OFI CreteLevadeiakosOFI Crete
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
14 conceded
09/12
09/17
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Levadeiakos
3/10 over 2.5
3 scored
14 conceded
05/17
08/23
08/31
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/17
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | OFI Crete | Draw | Levadeiakos |
|---|---|---|---|
| OFI Crete | 26%3.82 | 3%33.22 | 1%— |
| Level | 21%4.72 | 15%6.88 | 7%14.45 |
| Levadeiakos | 5%21.98 | 7%14.68 | 16%6.22 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3OFI Crete wins3Levadeiakos wins- L Levadeiakos vs OFI Crete 3-2
- W OFI Crete vs Levadeiakos 2-0
- W OFI Crete vs Levadeiakos 3-2
- L Levadeiakos vs OFI Crete 4-0
- D OFI Crete vs Levadeiakos 0-0
- D Levadeiakos vs OFI Crete 1-1
- D OFI Crete vs Levadeiakos 1-1
- L Levadeiakos vs OFI Crete 2-0
- W OFI Crete vs Levadeiakos 2-1
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from OFI Crete's side.