Oldham
35%
Fair odds 2.85
Exeter
Model pick
36%
Fair odds 2.78
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Oldham | Draw | Exeter | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 35% | 29% | 36% |
| Elo model | 32% | 28% | 40% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Exeter
Exeter are rated 91 points above Oldham (1281 to 1190), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Oldham
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Oldham's chance of winning and takes the same from Exeter's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.2. Oldham score 0.6 a match against an average side (17th in League Two); Exeter concede 1.8 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Oldham WLDLW, barely moved; Exeter LWWDW, gained 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
OldhamExeterOldham
4/10 over 2.5
8 scored
16 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/03
Exeter
2/10 over 2.5
7 scored
5 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Oldham | Draw | Exeter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oldham | 19%5.17 | 4%22.68 | 2%63.29 |
| Level | 14%7.02 | 18%5.55 | 13%7.69 |
| Exeter | 2%48.08 | 5%18.62 | 22%4.56 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Oldham wins2Exeter wins- L Oldham vs Exeter 0-2
- L Exeter vs Oldham 2-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Oldham's side.