Olympiakos
Model pick
46%
Fair odds 2.17Bookmakers 41%
Milan
26%
Fair odds 3.84Bookmakers 32%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Olympiakos | Draw | Milan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 46% | 28% | 26% |
| Elo model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Best price on offer | 2.41 | 3.45 | 3.06 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Milan
Milan are rated 21 points above Olympiakos (1575 to 1554), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Olympiakos
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Olympiakos's chance of winning and takes the same from Milan's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Olympiakos
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.0. Olympiakos score 1.2 a match against an average side (3rd in Greek Super League); Milan concede 1.2 (8th best defence in Serie A).
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Last 5 matches Favours Olympiakos
Olympiakos DWWWW, gained 22 rating points; Milan LWLWL, lost 22 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Milan
Bookmakers rate Milan higher than the model does: Olympiakos 41% against the model's 46%, Milan 32% against 26%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
OlympiakosMilanOlympiakos
3/10 over 2.5
16 scored
4 conceded
09/12
09/16
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/04
Milan
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
15 conceded
09/16
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/28
10/31
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 51%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Olympiakos | Draw | Milan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Olympiakos | 25%4.04 | 3%30.12 | 1%— |
| Level | 19%5.38 | 17%5.82 | 8%12.56 |
| Milan | 3%31.15 | 6%15.72 | 18%5.62 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.