Osnabruck
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.46
Hannover
34%
Fair odds 2.95
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Osnabruck | Draw | Hannover | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| Elo model | 32% | 28% | 40% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Hannover
Hannover are rated 91 points above Osnabruck (1376 to 1284), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Osnabruck
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Osnabruck's chance of winning and takes the same from Hannover's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Osnabruck
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.4. Osnabruck score 0.9 a match against an average side (16th in 2. Bundesliga); Hannover concede 1.8 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Osnabruck
Osnabruck LWLDD, gained 8 rating points; Hannover WLDLW, lost 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
OsnabruckHannoverOsnabruck
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
17 conceded
08/08
08/15
08/28
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/25
10/31
Hannover
6/10 over 2.5
10 scored
16 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/30
09/04
09/11
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 2-2
- 2-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Osnabruck | Draw | Hannover |
|---|---|---|---|
| Osnabruck | 23%4.39 | 4%22.52 | 2%56.50 |
| Level | 15%6.62 | 14%7.15 | 11%9.14 |
| Hannover | 3%31.35 | 6%16.56 | 22%4.61 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Osnabruck wins1Hannover wins- W Osnabruck vs Hannover 1-0
- L Hannover vs Osnabruck 7-0
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Osnabruck's side.