Oviedo
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.44
Celta
31%
Fair odds 3.18
The prediction
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Oviedo | Draw | Celta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Elo model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Celta
Celta are rated 88 points above Oviedo (1492 to 1404), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Oviedo
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Oviedo's chance of winning and takes the same from Celta's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Oviedo
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.2. Oviedo score 1.1 a match against an average side (5th in La Liga 2); Celta concede 1.3 (10th best defence in La Liga).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Oviedo LDWWL, barely moved; Celta LLDWW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
OviedoCeltaOviedo
7/10 over 2.5
17 scored
14 conceded
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/02
10/12
10/18
10/24
11/02
Celta
6/10 over 2.5
12 scored
11 conceded
09/13
09/16
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Oviedo | Draw | Celta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oviedo | 25%4.06 | 5%19.84 | 2%54.35 |
| Level | 15%6.78 | 16%6.06 | 12%8.30 |
| Celta | 2%46.30 | 5%20.33 | 18%5.52 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Oviedo wins0Celta wins- W Celta vs Oviedo 0-3
- D Oviedo vs Celta 0-0
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Oviedo's side.