Oxford
Model pick
53%
Fair odds 1.90
Stevenage
21%
Fair odds 4.85
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Oxford | Draw | Stevenage | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 53% | 27% | 21% |
| Elo model | 58% | 25% | 17% |
Team news
- Ruben Rooksen Out
- Jamie McDonnell Out
- Jeon Jin-woo Out
- Jamie Cumming Out
- Michal Helik Doubtful
Rotation expected
Aaron Ramsey is expected to make changes; Gatlin O'Donkor may start ahead of Mark Harris. Oxford are unbeaten in ten league games.
- Luther James-Wildin Out
- Dan Kemp Doubtful
- Wanya Marcal Out
- Jasper Pattenden Out
- Jordan Roberts Out
Only one recent report found (Last Word On Football, 5 Nov) listing these absences; Stevenage's own club site had no team news in results. Stevenage drew 2-2 at Leicester midweek-prior and sit 16th in League One.
Allowing for this news: Oxford 50%, draw 27%, Stevenage 22% (xG 1.50 – 0.91). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: lastwordonsports.com, lastwordonsports.com, statz.ai, thestatszone.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Oxford
Oxford are rated 84 points above Stevenage (1448 to 1365), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Oxford
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Oxford's chance of winning and takes the same from Stevenage's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Oxford
Expected goals 1.6 to 0.9. Oxford score 1.1 a match against an average side (3rd in League One); Stevenage concede 1.4 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Oxford WDWDW, gained 9 rating points; Stevenage DLWLW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Stevenage
Oxford will have had 3 days' rest, Stevenage 7. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Oxford
Oxford won 2, drew 1 and lost 0 of the last 3 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
OxfordStevenageOxford
4/10 over 2.5
17 scored
5 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/15
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
11/04
Stevenage
5/10 over 2.5
15 scored
10 conceded
08/29
09/01
09/05
09/10
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 3-0
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Oxford | Draw | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford | 31%3.24 | 4%24.15 | 1%94.34 |
| Level | 20%5.06 | 17%5.87 | 9%11.61 |
| Stevenage | 3%39.84 | 5%21.88 | 11%8.73 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Oxford wins0Stevenage wins- W Stevenage vs Oxford 1-2
- D Oxford vs Stevenage 1-1
- W Stevenage vs Oxford 1-3
3 meetings in the data. Results shown from Oxford's side.