Paderborn
Model pick
48%
Fair odds 2.08
Schalke 04
26%
Fair odds 3.78
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Paderborn | Draw | Schalke 04 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 48% | 25% | 26% |
| Elo model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Paderborn
Paderborn are rated 19 points above Schalke 04 (1425 to 1406), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Paderborn
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Paderborn's chance of winning and takes the same from Schalke 04's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Paderborn
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.2. Paderborn score 1.1 a match against an average side (17th in Bundesliga); Schalke 04 concede 1.6 (16th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Paderborn
Paderborn DWDLW, gained 16 rating points; Schalke 04 LDLLD, lost 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Schalke 04
Paderborn won 2, drew 1 and lost 5 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
PaderbornSchalke 04Paderborn
4/10 over 2.5
10 scored
11 conceded
05/08
05/17
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/31
Schalke 04
4/10 over 2.5
5 scored
12 conceded
05/09
05/17
08/30
09/05
09/11
09/20
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Paderborn | Draw | Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn | 30%3.34 | 5%21.10 | 2%64.94 |
| Level | 16%6.27 | 15%6.84 | 9%10.66 |
| Schalke 04 | 3%36.90 | 5%19.38 | 16%6.25 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Paderborn wins5Schalke 04 wins- L Paderborn vs Schalke 04 2-3
- L Schalke 04 vs Paderborn 2-1
- W Schalke 04 vs Paderborn 0-2
- L Paderborn vs Schalke 04 2-4
- D Schalke 04 vs Paderborn 3-3
- W Paderborn vs Schalke 04 3-1
- L Schalke 04 vs Paderborn 2-0
- L Paderborn vs Schalke 04 0-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Paderborn's side.