Palermo
Model pick
60%
Fair odds 1.67
Benevento
18%
Fair odds 5.68
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Palermo | Draw | Benevento | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Elo model | 65% | 23% | 12% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Palermo
Palermo are rated 143 points above Benevento (1476 to 1333), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Palermo
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Palermo's chance of winning and takes the same from Benevento's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Palermo
Expected goals 2.0 to 1.0. Palermo score 1.2 a match against an average side (1st in Serie B); Benevento concede 1.6 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Palermo WDWWW, gained 26 rating points; Benevento LDWDW, gained 15 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
PalermoBeneventoPalermo
7/10 over 2.5
24 scored
12 conceded
08/23
08/30
09/07
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/25
10/28
11/01
Benevento
4/10 over 2.5
14 scored
10 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/05
09/11
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Palermo | Draw | Benevento |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palermo | 35%2.88 | 4%27.55 | 1%— |
| Level | 22%4.57 | 13%7.79 | 7%14.99 |
| Benevento | 4%25.32 | 5%20.04 | 10%9.66 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Palermo wins0Benevento wins- D Palermo vs Benevento 1-1
- W Benevento vs Palermo 0-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Palermo's side.