Paris SG
Model pick
89%
Fair odds 1.13
Lorient
3%
Fair odds 29.94
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Paris SG | Draw | Lorient | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 89% | 8% | 3% |
| Elo model | 79% | 16% | 5% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Paris SG
Paris SG are rated 267 points above Lorient (1760 to 1493), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
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Home advantage Favours Paris SG
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 5 points to Paris SG's chance of winning and takes the same from Lorient's.
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Attack against defence Favours Paris SG
Expected goals 3.6 to 0.7. Paris SG score 2.9 a match against an average side (1st in Ligue 1); Lorient concede 1.3 (8th best defence).
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Last 5 matches Favours Paris SG
Paris SG WWWWW, gained 37 rating points; Lorient LDWWL, lost 9 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Paris SG
Paris SG won 3, drew 4 and lost 1 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Paris SGLorientParis SG
8/10 over 2.5
36 scored
9 conceded
09/09
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/26
10/30
11/03
Lorient
3/10 over 2.5
7 scored
10 conceded
05/17
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/25
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 3-0
- 4-0
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 5-0
- 4-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 10 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Paris SG | Draw | Lorient |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris SG | 49%2.03 | 1%— | 0%— |
| Level | 31%3.22 | 4%25.84 | 1%— |
| Lorient | 9%11.71 | 3%32.79 | 3%39.68 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Paris SG wins1Lorient wins- D Paris SG vs Lorient 2-2
- D Lorient vs Paris SG 1-1
- W Lorient vs Paris SG 1-4
- D Paris SG vs Lorient 0-0
- L Paris SG vs Lorient 1-3
- W Lorient vs Paris SG 1-2
- W Paris SG vs Lorient 5-1
- D Lorient vs Paris SG 1-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Paris SG's side.