Parma
33%
Fair odds 3.06Bookmakers 22%
Bologna
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.60Bookmakers 51%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Parma: 33% here, 22% with bookmakers; Bologna: 39% here, 51% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Parma | Draw | Bologna | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 33% | 29% | 39% |
| Elo model | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 22% | 27% | 51% |
| Best price on offer | 4.50 | 3.60 | 1.91 |
Team news
- Adrián Bernabé Out
- Dominik Drobnic Out
Nicolussi Caviglia is back in contention, and Diego Carlos is reported ahead of Ndiaye at centre-back. Sources differ on Drobnic, with one listing him as doubtful.
- Roberto Piccoli Out
- Emil Holm Out
- Lorenzo De Silvestri Doubtful
- Jay Enem Doubtful
Riccardo Orsolini is back in the squad after recovery, and no suspensions are reported for Bologna.
Allowing for this news: Parma 32%, draw 29%, Bologna 38% (xG 1.12 – 1.24). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sportsmole.co.uk, dazn.com, news.bet365.it, calciomagazine.net
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Bologna
Bologna are rated 90 points above Parma (1541 to 1450), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Parma
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Parma's chance of winning and takes the same from Bologna's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.3. Parma score 1.0 a match against an average side (20th in Serie A); Bologna concede 1.1 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Bologna
Parma WDLLL, barely moved; Bologna WWWLW, gained 31 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Bologna
Bookmakers rate Bologna higher than the model does: Parma 22% against the model's 33%, Bologna 51% against 39%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Parma won 2, drew 1 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ParmaBolognaParma
6/10 over 2.5
8 scored
15 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/06
09/14
09/20
10/10
10/19
10/24
10/28
11/02
Bologna
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
13 conceded
08/24
08/31
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/28
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 45%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Parma | Draw | Bologna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parma | 18%5.47 | 5%21.28 | 2%53.76 |
| Level | 13%7.63 | 18%5.56 | 14%6.91 |
| Bologna | 2%54.95 | 5%19.88 | 23%4.40 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Parma wins1Bologna wins- W Bologna vs Parma 0-1
- L Parma vs Bologna 1-3
- W Parma vs Bologna 2-0
- D Bologna vs Parma 0-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Parma's side.