Peterboro
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.64
Cambridge
36%
Fair odds 2.78
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Peterboro | Draw | Cambridge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| Elo model | 40% | 28% | 33% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Cambridge
Cambridge are rated 41 points above Peterboro (1312 to 1271), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Peterboro
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Peterboro's chance of winning and takes the same from Cambridge's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.4. Peterboro score 0.8 a match against an average side (16th in League One); Cambridge concede 1.7 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Peterboro LDLDW, barely moved; Cambridge LDLDW, lost 9 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Peterboro
Peterboro won 5, drew 0 and lost 1 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
PeterboroCambridgePeterboro
4/10 over 2.5
9 scored
16 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Cambridge
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
15 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Peterboro | Draw | Cambridge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peterboro | 24%4.11 | 6%15.70 | 3%30.96 |
| Level | 12%8.14 | 15%6.77 | 15%6.60 |
| Cambridge | 2%58.48 | 4%24.88 | 18%5.52 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Peterboro wins1Cambridge wins- W Cambridge vs Peterboro 0-1
- W Peterboro vs Cambridge 6-1
- W Cambridge vs Peterboro 0-1
- W Peterboro vs Cambridge 5-0
- L Cambridge vs Peterboro 2-0
- W Peterboro vs Cambridge 1-0
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Peterboro's side.