Port Vale
Model pick
49%
Fair odds 2.03
Newport County
24%
Fair odds 4.18
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Port Vale | Draw | Newport County | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Elo model | 58% | 25% | 17% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Port Vale
Port Vale are rated 84 points above Newport County (1248 to 1164), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Port Vale
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Port Vale's chance of winning and takes the same from Newport County's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Port Vale
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.0. Port Vale score 0.7 a match against an average side (7th in League Two); Newport County concede 2.1 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Port Vale WLDWW, gained 8 rating points; Newport County WLDDW, gained 23 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Port Vale won 2, drew 0 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Port ValeNewport CountyPort Vale
2/10 over 2.5
9 scored
11 conceded
08/29
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Newport County
3/10 over 2.5
11 scored
8 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Port Vale | Draw | Newport County |
|---|---|---|---|
| Port Vale | 34%2.94 | 6%16.31 | 2%48.78 |
| Level | 14%6.99 | 16%6.11 | 11%9.02 |
| Newport County | 1%69.44 | 3%29.76 | 11%8.86 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Port Vale wins2Newport County wins- W Port Vale vs Newport County 3-2
- W Newport County vs Port Vale 1-4
- L Port Vale vs Newport County 1-2
- L Newport County vs Port Vale 2-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Port Vale's side.