Porto
Model pick
47%
Fair odds 2.15
Sp Lisbon
27%
Fair odds 3.75
The prediction
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Porto | Draw | Sp Lisbon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 47% | 27% | 27% |
| Elo model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Porto and Sp Lisbon are rated almost level (1687 and 1696).
-
Home advantage Favours Porto
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Porto's chance of winning and takes the same from Sp Lisbon's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Porto
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.1. Porto score 1.7 a match against an average side (3rd in Primeira Liga); Sp Lisbon concede 0.9 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Porto WWWLL, barely moved; Sp Lisbon WWLLW, lost 9 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Porto won 3, drew 5 and lost 2 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
PortoSp LisbonPorto
7/10 over 2.5
22 scored
11 conceded
09/04
09/08
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/04
Sp Lisbon
5/10 over 2.5
19 scored
10 conceded
09/05
09/09
09/13
09/19
10/09
10/13
10/21
10/25
10/30
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 0 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Porto | Draw | Sp Lisbon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Porto | 26%3.87 | 4%24.69 | 1%81.30 |
| Level | 18%5.49 | 16%6.26 | 10%10.52 |
| Sp Lisbon | 3%32.36 | 6%17.57 | 16%6.10 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Porto wins2Sp Lisbon wins- D Porto vs Sp Lisbon 1-1
- W Sp Lisbon vs Porto 1-2
- D Porto vs Sp Lisbon 1-1
- L Sp Lisbon vs Porto 2-0
- D Porto vs Sp Lisbon 2-2
- L Sp Lisbon vs Porto 2-0
- W Sp Lisbon vs Porto 1-2
- W Porto vs Sp Lisbon 3-0
- D Porto vs Sp Lisbon 2-2
- D Sp Lisbon vs Porto 1-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Porto's side.