Portsmouth
Model pick
48%
Fair odds 2.07Bookmakers 41%
Stoke
25%
Fair odds 4.05Bookmakers 30%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Portsmouth | Draw | Stoke | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Elo model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| Best price on offer | 2.38 | 3.25 | 3.20 |
Team news
- Marko Milovanović Out
- Iyad Mohamed Doubtful
- Benjamin Arthur Out
- Connor Ogilvie Out
- Márk Kosznovszky Out
- John Swift Out
- Luke Brooke-Smith Out
- Keshi Anderson Out
- Colby Bishop Out
Thomas Waddingham and Tyrese Shade are the centre-forward options; Mousinho is wary of starting Waddingham given his injury record. Pompey are unbeaten in six league games.
- Sam Gallagher Out
- Aaron Cresswell Out
- Eric Bocat Out
- Lamine Cissé Out
- Ato Ampah Out
Ethan Galbraith returns from suspension and is available; Stoke are fourth/third-placed and won 2-1 at Blackburn on Tuesday.
Allowing for this news: Portsmouth 49%, draw 27%, Stoke 24% (xG 1.50 – 0.98). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: portsmouth.co.uk, dave.sport, dave.sport, sportsmole.co.uk
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Portsmouth
Portsmouth are rated 18 points above Stoke (1476 to 1457), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Portsmouth
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Portsmouth's chance of winning and takes the same from Stoke's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Portsmouth
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.0. Portsmouth score 1.1 a match against an average side (13th in Championship); Stoke concede 1.3 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Portsmouth WDWDW, gained 29 rating points; Stoke WWDWL, gained 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Stoke
Bookmakers rate Stoke higher than the model does: Portsmouth 41% against the model's 48%, Stoke 30% against 25%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Portsmouth won 2, drew 0 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
PortsmouthStokePortsmouth
4/10 over 2.5
14 scored
8 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/03
Stoke
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
8 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 44%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Portsmouth | Draw | Stoke |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth | 26%3.80 | 4%27.55 | 1%— |
| Level | 19%5.18 | 16%6.13 | 8%11.92 |
| Stoke | 3%30.30 | 6%16.84 | 16%6.30 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Portsmouth wins2Stoke wins- W Stoke vs Portsmouth 1-3
- L Portsmouth vs Stoke 0-1
- W Portsmouth vs Stoke 3-1
- L Stoke vs Portsmouth 6-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Portsmouth's side.