Preston
21%
Fair odds 4.78
Norwich
Model pick
56%
Fair odds 1.80
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Preston | Draw | Norwich | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 21% | 23% | 56% |
| Elo model | 27% | 27% | 46% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Norwich
Norwich are rated 133 points above Preston (1495 to 1362), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Preston
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Preston's chance of winning and takes the same from Norwich's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Norwich
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.9. Preston score 0.8 a match against an average side (24th in Championship); Norwich concede 1.3 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Norwich
Preston LLDLL, lost 27 rating points; Norwich WWWLL, gained 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Preston won 2, drew 3 and lost 3 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
PrestonNorwichPreston
6/10 over 2.5
9 scored
21 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Norwich
8/10 over 2.5
22 scored
17 conceded
09/05
09/09
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 1-3
- 0-3
- 0-0
- 2-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Preston | Draw | Norwich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preston | 14%7.28 | 6%16.34 | 5%21.93 |
| Level | 7%14.88 | 13%7.65 | 21%4.73 |
| Norwich | 1%— | 3%30.03 | 30%3.29 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Preston wins3Norwich wins- L Norwich vs Preston 2-0
- D Preston vs Norwich 1-1
- W Norwich vs Preston 0-1
- D Preston vs Norwich 2-2
- L Preston vs Norwich 0-1
- D Norwich vs Preston 0-0
- L Preston vs Norwich 0-4
- W Norwich vs Preston 2-3
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Preston's side.