Preston
17%
Fair odds 5.95Bookmakers 20%
Southampton
Model pick
62%
Fair odds 1.62Bookmakers 57%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Preston | Draw | Southampton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 17% | 21% | 62% |
| Elo model | 18% | 25% | 57% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 20% | 23% | 57% |
| Best price on offer | 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.67 |
Team news
- Johnny Kenny Out
- Léo Leroy Out
- Lewis Gibson Out
- Harry Clarke Out
- Liam Gibbs Out
- Ali McCann Out
Graham Alexander's side has also been reported as having lost 11 of 14 league games; Preston are bottom and nine points from safety, per recent previews.
- Cyle Larin Doubtful
- Léo Scienza Doubtful
- Caspar Jander Doubtful
Tonda Eckert says Southampton will field whoever he picks for the game; the squad has a gap in league fixtures until 21 November, per recent reports.
Allowing for this news: Preston 16%, draw 21%, Southampton 63% (xG 0.94 – 2.06). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: lep.co.uk, lep.co.uk, sportsmole.co.uk, whoscored.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Southampton
Southampton are rated 209 points above Preston (1571 to 1362), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Preston
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Preston's chance of winning and takes the same from Southampton's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Southampton
Expected goals 1.0 to 2.1. Preston score 0.8 a match against an average side (24th in Championship); Southampton concede 1.2 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Southampton
Preston LLDLL, lost 27 rating points; Southampton DWWDW, gained 17 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Preston
Bookmakers rate Preston higher than the model does: Preston 20% against the model's 17%, Southampton 57% against 62%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Preston won 1, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
PrestonSouthamptonPreston
6/10 over 2.5
9 scored
21 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Southampton
5/10 over 2.5
19 scored
9 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/14
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 60%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-1
- 1-3
- 0-3
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Preston | Draw | Southampton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preston | 11%8.96 | 6%16.78 | 5%18.42 |
| Level | 5%18.76 | 12%8.53 | 24%4.20 |
| Southampton | 1%— | 3%35.59 | 33%3.02 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Preston wins2Southampton wins- L Preston vs Southampton 1-3
- W Southampton vs Preston 0-2
- L Southampton vs Preston 3-0
- D Preston vs Southampton 2-2
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Preston's side.