PSV Eindhoven
Model pick
76%
Fair odds 1.31
Go Ahead Eagles
10%
Fair odds 10.08
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Go Ahead Eagles | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| Elo model | 73% | 19% | 7% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven are rated 210 points above Go Ahead Eagles (1667 to 1458), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours PSV Eindhoven
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to PSV Eindhoven's chance of winning and takes the same from Go Ahead Eagles's.
-
Attack against defence Favours PSV Eindhoven
Expected goals 3.0 to 1.1. PSV Eindhoven score 1.9 a match against an average side (3rd in Eredivisie); Go Ahead Eagles concede 1.7 (17th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven LWDWL, lost 10 rating points; Go Ahead Eagles LWLDD, lost 26 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven won 9, drew 0 and lost 1 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
PSV EindhovenGo Ahead EaglesPSV Eindhoven
5/10 over 2.5
20 scored
11 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
10/09
10/13
10/17
10/20
10/25
10/31
11/04
Go Ahead Eagles
8/10 over 2.5
19 scored
26 conceded
08/16
08/23
08/29
09/08
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/18
10/23
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 3-1
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 2-0
- 4-1
- 4-0
- 1-1
- 1-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 53%1.88 | 3%32.89 | 1%— |
| Level | 19%5.25 | 7%14.81 | 3%28.74 |
| Go Ahead Eagles | 4%22.47 | 4%28.41 | 6%17.30 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
9PSV Eindhoven wins1Go Ahead Eagles wins- W Go Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven 1-4
- W PSV Eindhoven vs Go Ahead Eagles 2-1
- L Go Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven 3-2
- W PSV Eindhoven vs Go Ahead Eagles 3-0
- W Go Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven 0-1
- W PSV Eindhoven vs Go Ahead Eagles 3-0
- W PSV Eindhoven vs Go Ahead Eagles 2-0
- W Go Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven 2-5
- W PSV Eindhoven vs Go Ahead Eagles 2-0
- W Go Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven 1-2
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from PSV Eindhoven's side.