QPR
Model pick
60%
Fair odds 1.67Bookmakers 57%
Lincoln
18%
Fair odds 5.63Bookmakers 19%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| QPR | Draw | Lincoln | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Elo model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Best price on offer | 1.70 | 4.20 | 5.25 |
Team news
- Alfie Lloyd Out
- Nicolas Madsen Out
- Rumarn Burrell Out
- Tariq Lamptey Out
- Amadou Mbengue Out
- Jake Clarke-Salter Doubtful
Richard Kone is expected to be available despite being hauled off against Burnley; Ilias Chair's return from injury is not an absence; Koki Saito may be dropped from the XI.
- Ben House Out
- Tendayi Darikwa Out
- Mason Melia Out
- Ethan Wheatley Doubtful
- Conor McGrandles Doubtful
- Mikkel Ladefoged Doubtful
Lincoln manager Chris Cohen is hopeful McGrandles and Ladefoged can play; Ben House misses out through suspension.
Allowing for this news: QPR 60%, draw 23%, Lincoln 17% (xG 1.94 – 0.94). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sportsmole.co.uk, hounslowherald.com, footballleagueworld.co.uk, aol.co.uk
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours QPR
QPR are rated 25 points above Lincoln (1464 to 1439), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours QPR
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to QPR's chance of winning and takes the same from Lincoln's.
-
Attack against defence Favours QPR
Expected goals 2.0 to 1.0. QPR score 1.2 a match against an average side (9th in Championship); Lincoln concede 1.6 (21st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours QPR
QPR DLWLW, gained 8 rating points; Lincoln LLWDL, lost 23 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Lincoln
Bookmakers rate Lincoln higher than the model does: QPR 57% against the model's 60%, Lincoln 19% against 18%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
QPRLincolnQPR
5/10 over 2.5
15 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/09
09/12
09/19
10/09
10/14
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Lincoln
6/10 over 2.5
11 scored
19 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 54%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | QPR | Draw | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|---|
| QPR | 36%2.80 | 4%26.74 | 1%— |
| Level | 21%4.80 | 13%7.80 | 7%15.20 |
| Lincoln | 4%26.74 | 5%20.20 | 11%9.45 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.