QPR
Model pick
48%
Fair odds 2.07
Sheffield United
27%
Fair odds 3.77
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| QPR | Draw | Sheffield United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| Elo model | 43% | 28% | 30% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Sheffield United
Sheffield United are rated 20 points above QPR (1483 to 1464), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours QPR
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to QPR's chance of winning and takes the same from Sheffield United's.
-
Attack against defence Favours QPR
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.2. QPR score 1.2 a match against an average side (9th in Championship); Sheffield United concede 1.4 (16th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
QPR DLWLW, gained 8 rating points; Sheffield United WWDWL, gained 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Sheffield United
QPR won 1, drew 3 and lost 4 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
QPRSheffield UnitedQPR
5/10 over 2.5
15 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/09
09/12
09/19
10/09
10/14
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Sheffield United
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
13 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/24
10/30
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | QPR | Draw | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|---|
| QPR | 28%3.53 | 4%22.42 | 2%66.23 |
| Level | 17%5.79 | 14%7.01 | 9%10.59 |
| Sheffield United | 3%31.35 | 5%18.28 | 16%6.23 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1QPR wins4Sheffield United wins- L QPR vs Sheffield United 0-2
- D Sheffield United vs QPR 0-0
- L QPR vs Sheffield United 1-2
- D Sheffield United vs QPR 2-2
- D QPR vs Sheffield United 1-1
- W Sheffield United vs QPR 0-1
- L QPR vs Sheffield United 1-3
- L Sheffield United vs QPR 1-0
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from QPR's side.