RAAL La Louviere
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.59Bookmakers 35%
Cercle Brugge
36%
Fair odds 2.75Bookmakers 37%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| RAAL La Louviere | Draw | Cercle Brugge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 39% | 25% | 36% |
| Elo model | 43% | 28% | 30% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Best price on offer | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.60 |
Team news
No absences reported
A lineup page for a previous La Louvière match (about 4 days old) lists Mouhamed Belkheir as injured, but a same-week preview reports no injuries for La Louvière, so no absence is recorded.
No absences reported
A same-week preview reports no injuries or suspensions for Cercle Brugge; the only injury items found are older (Nunes and Ouattara from earlier in the season, and Ouattara's return was reported in August).
Allowing for this news: RAAL La Louviere 39%, draw 25%, Cercle Brugge 36% (xG 1.57 – 1.51). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search, which found little recent news, so treat this with care. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: bet-experts.nl, ysscores.com, voetbalkrant.com, fotmob.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge are rated 19 points above RAAL La Louviere (1445 to 1426), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours RAAL La Louviere
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to RAAL La Louviere's chance of winning and takes the same from Cercle Brugge's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.5. RAAL La Louviere score 1.1 a match against an average side (17th in Belgian Pro League); Cercle Brugge concede 1.5 (16th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
RAAL La Louviere LWLLW, barely moved; Cercle Brugge WLLLD, lost 7 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Cercle Brugge
Bookmakers rate Cercle Brugge higher than the model does: RAAL La Louviere 35% against the model's 39%, Cercle Brugge 37% against 36%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours RAAL La Louviere
RAAL La Louviere won 3, drew 0 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
RAAL La LouviereCercle BruggeRAAL La Louviere
8/10 over 2.5
13 scored
23 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/21
08/29
09/05
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/24
11/01
Cercle Brugge
7/10 over 2.5
13 scored
22 conceded
08/08
08/14
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 51%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | RAAL La Louviere | Draw | Cercle Brugge |
|---|---|---|---|
| RAAL La Louviere | 22%4.50 | 5%19.92 | 2%41.67 |
| Level | 14%7.09 | 14%7.37 | 13%7.82 |
| Cercle Brugge | 3%35.09 | 5%18.32 | 22%4.63 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3RAAL La Louviere wins1Cercle Brugge wins- W RAAL La Louviere vs Cercle Brugge 4-1
- L Cercle Brugge vs RAAL La Louviere 3-0
- W Cercle Brugge vs RAAL La Louviere 1-3
- W RAAL La Louviere vs Cercle Brugge 2-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from RAAL La Louviere's side.