Raith Rvs
0%
Fair odds —
Dunfermline
0%
Fair odds —
Final result. Before kick-off: 37% / 30% / 33%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Raith Rvs | Draw | Dunfermline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| Elo model | 44% | 28% | 29% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Dunfermline
Dunfermline are rated 13 points above Raith Rvs (1386 to 1373), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Raith Rvs
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Raith Rvs's chance of winning and takes the same from Dunfermline's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.1. Raith Rvs score 0.9 a match against an average side (4th in Scottish Championship); Dunfermline concede 1.3 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Raith Rvs WLDWW, gained 12 rating points; Dunfermline WWWDD, gained 22 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Raith Rvs won 7, drew 3 and lost 7 of the last 17 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Raith RvsDunfermlineRaith Rvs
3/10 over 2.5
15 scored
7 conceded
08/28
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/25
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/31
Dunfermline
1/10 over 2.5
14 scored
4 conceded
08/28
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Raith Rvs | Draw | Dunfermline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raith Rvs | 24%4.23 | 5%18.25 | 2%53.19 |
| Level | 13%7.81 | 19%5.14 | 14%7.31 |
| Dunfermline | 1%76.34 | 4%24.69 | 18%5.65 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
7Raith Rvs wins7Dunfermline wins- L Dunfermline vs Raith Rvs 1-0
- L Dunfermline vs Raith Rvs 3-0
- L Raith Rvs vs Dunfermline 1-2
- L Dunfermline vs Raith Rvs 2-0
- W Raith Rvs vs Dunfermline 2-0
- W Raith Rvs vs Dunfermline 2-0
- L Dunfermline vs Raith Rvs 3-1
- W Raith Rvs vs Dunfermline 2-0
- L Dunfermline vs Raith Rvs 2-0
- W Raith Rvs vs Dunfermline 2-0
17 meetings in the data. Results shown from Raith Rvs's side.