Randers FC
32%
Fair odds 3.13
Horsens
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.37
The prediction
- 1–112%
- 1–29%
- 0–18%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Randers FC | Draw | Horsens | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| Elo model | 45% | 28% | 28% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Randers FC and Horsens are rated almost level (1298 and 1303).
-
Home advantage Favours Randers FC
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Randers FC's chance of winning and takes the same from Horsens's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Horsens
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.6. Randers FC score 0.7 a match against an average side (14th in Danish Superliga); Horsens concede 2.0 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Horsens
Randers FC LLDLL, lost 36 rating points; Horsens LWDDD, gained 13 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Randers FC won 1, drew 1 and lost 1 of the last 3 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Randers FCHorsensRanders FC
7/10 over 2.5
10 scored
19 conceded
08/16
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/16
10/23
10/30
Horsens
7/10 over 2.5
21 scored
16 conceded
08/16
08/23
08/28
09/06
09/11
09/20
10/11
10/16
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Randers FC | Draw | Horsens |
|---|---|---|---|
| Randers FC | 24%4.25 | 8%13.07 | 4%23.09 |
| Level | 8%12.58 | 14%7.10 | 17%5.85 |
| Horsens | 1%— | 3%31.95 | 21%4.69 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Randers FC wins1Horsens wins- D Horsens vs Randers FC 0-0
- L Horsens vs Randers FC 5-1
- W Randers FC vs Horsens 1-0
3 meetings in the data. Results shown from Randers FC's side.