Rangers
Model pick
69%
Fair odds 1.44
Falkirk
13%
Fair odds 7.94
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Rangers | Draw | Falkirk | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 69% | 18% | 13% |
| Elo model | 63% | 23% | 13% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Rangers
Rangers are rated 126 points above Falkirk (1605 to 1478), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Rangers
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Rangers's chance of winning and takes the same from Falkirk's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Rangers
Expected goals 2.4 to 0.9. Rangers score 1.7 a match against an average side (2nd in Scottish Premiership); Falkirk concede 1.4 (6th best defence).
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Last 5 matches Neutral
Rangers DWDWW, gained 19 rating points; Falkirk WWWWL, gained 34 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Rangers
Rangers won 3, drew 2 and lost 0 of the last 5 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
RangersFalkirkRangers
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
8 conceded
08/09
08/30
09/02
09/05
09/09
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/28
Falkirk
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
10 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/05
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/28
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 3-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 4-0
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Rangers | Draw | Falkirk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | 47%2.12 | 4%27.10 | 1%— |
| Level | 19%5.23 | 10%10.01 | 5%20.75 |
| Falkirk | 3%29.94 | 4%26.25 | 7%13.99 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Rangers wins0Falkirk wins- W Falkirk vs Rangers 1-2
- W Falkirk vs Rangers 2-5
- W Falkirk vs Rangers 3-6
- D Rangers vs Falkirk 0-0
- D Falkirk vs Rangers 1-1
5 meetings in the data. Results shown from Rangers's side.