Real Madrid
Model pick
75%
Fair odds 1.33
Alaves
9%
Fair odds 10.65
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Real Madrid | Draw | Alaves | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 75% | 15% | 9% |
| Elo model | 78% | 17% | 5% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Real Madrid
Real Madrid are rated 255 points above Alaves (1716 to 1462), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Real Madrid
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 5 points to Real Madrid's chance of winning and takes the same from Alaves's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Real Madrid
Expected goals 2.6 to 0.9. Real Madrid score 2.2 a match against an average side (2nd in La Liga); Alaves concede 1.2 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Real Madrid
Real Madrid WWWWW, gained 30 rating points; Alaves LDLLD, lost 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Real Madrid
Real Madrid won 8, drew 0 and lost 0 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Real MadridAlavesReal Madrid
9/10 over 2.5
29 scored
13 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/18
10/21
10/25
11/04
Alaves
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
17 conceded
08/20
08/28
09/06
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/23
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 3-1
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 4-0
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Real Madrid | Draw | Alaves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 46%2.17 | 3%39.68 | 1%— |
| Level | 25%4.08 | 8%11.83 | 4%28.41 |
| Alaves | 5%20.28 | 4%25.71 | 6%17.99 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
8Real Madrid wins0Alaves wins- W Real Madrid vs Alaves 2-1
- W Alaves vs Real Madrid 1-2
- W Alaves vs Real Madrid 0-1
- W Real Madrid vs Alaves 3-2
- W Real Madrid vs Alaves 5-0
- W Alaves vs Real Madrid 0-1
- W Real Madrid vs Alaves 3-0
- W Alaves vs Real Madrid 1-4
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Real Madrid's side.