Remo
Model pick
60%
Fair odds 1.67
Chapecoense-SC
18%
Fair odds 5.61
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Remo | Draw | Chapecoense-SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Elo model | 60% | 24% | 16% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Remo
Remo are rated 101 points above Chapecoense-SC (1304 to 1203), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Remo
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Remo's chance of winning and takes the same from Chapecoense-SC's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Remo
Expected goals 2.0 to 1.0. Remo score 0.7 a match against an average side (18th in Brasileirão); Chapecoense-SC concede 2.6 (23rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Remo LWLDD, barely moved; Chapecoense-SC LLWLL, lost 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
RemoChapecoense-SCRemo
5/10 over 2.5
9 scored
18 conceded
09/01
09/06
09/15
09/19
10/07
10/10
10/18
10/23
10/29
11/05
Chapecoense-SC
8/10 over 2.5
9 scored
22 conceded
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/08
10/12
10/17
10/24
10/28
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Remo | Draw | Chapecoense-SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Remo | 33%3.07 | 2%40.82 | 0%— |
| Level | 22%4.47 | 12%8.18 | 5%22.12 |
| Chapecoense-SC | 5%18.45 | 7%14.79 | 13%7.59 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Remo wins0Chapecoense-SC wins- W Chapecoense-SC vs Remo 2-3
1 meetings in the data. Results shown from Remo's side.