Ried
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.35
Hartberg
32%
Fair odds 3.14
The prediction
- 1–112%
- 2–19%
- 1–08%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Ried | Draw | Hartberg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 43% | 26% | 32% |
| Elo model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Hartberg
Hartberg are rated 34 points above Ried (1368 to 1334), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Ried
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Ried's chance of winning and takes the same from Hartberg's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Ried
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.3. Ried score 0.9 a match against an average side (6th in Austrian Bundesliga); Hartberg concede 1.9 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Ried DDWWW, gained 32 rating points; Hartberg WWLWD, gained 21 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Hartberg
Ried won 1, drew 3 and lost 7 of the last 11 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
RiedHartbergRied
7/10 over 2.5
18 scored
17 conceded
08/09
08/14
08/21
08/30
09/11
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/25
10/31
Hartberg
7/10 over 2.5
20 scored
18 conceded
08/08
08/16
08/22
08/30
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/16
10/24
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Ried | Draw | Hartberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ried | 28%3.62 | 6%17.83 | 2%44.44 |
| Level | 13%7.58 | 14%6.96 | 12%8.64 |
| Hartberg | 2%46.51 | 5%21.10 | 18%5.41 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Ried wins7Hartberg wins- L Hartberg vs Ried 3-2
- L Hartberg vs Ried 2-0
- L Ried vs Hartberg 0-2
- L Hartberg vs Ried 2-0
- L Ried vs Hartberg 1-3
- L Ried vs Hartberg 0-1
- L Hartberg vs Ried 2-0
- D Hartberg vs Ried 1-1
- D Ried vs Hartberg 0-0
- W Ried vs Hartberg 1-0
11 meetings in the data. Results shown from Ried's side.