Rochdale
22%
Fair odds 4.49
Barnet
Model pick
54%
Fair odds 1.86
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Rochdale | Draw | Barnet | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 22% | 24% | 54% |
| Elo model | 26% | 27% | 47% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Barnet
Barnet are rated 139 points above Rochdale (1286 to 1147), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Rochdale
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Rochdale's chance of winning and takes the same from Barnet's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Barnet
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.8. Rochdale score 0.5 a match against an average side (24th in League Two); Barnet concede 2.0 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Barnet
Rochdale LLDLD, lost 32 rating points; Barnet DWDLW, lost 9 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Barnet
Rochdale won 1, drew 0 and lost 3 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
RochdaleBarnetRochdale
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
20 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Barnet
7/10 over 2.5
20 scored
14 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 1-3
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Rochdale | Draw | Barnet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rochdale | 13%7.50 | 5%18.55 | 4%27.03 |
| Level | 8%12.35 | 14%7.37 | 20%5.10 |
| Barnet | 1%79.37 | 4%24.69 | 31%3.23 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Rochdale wins3Barnet wins- L Rochdale vs Barnet 0-4
- L Barnet vs Rochdale 2-1
- L Barnet vs Rochdale 2-0
- W Rochdale vs Barnet 4-2
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Rochdale's side.