Roma
Model pick
75%
Fair odds 1.34
Monza
10%
Fair odds 10.07
The prediction
- 2–010%
- 2–19%
- 3–09%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Roma | Draw | Monza | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 75% | 15% | 10% |
| Elo model | 75% | 18% | 6% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Roma
Roma are rated 227 points above Monza (1653 to 1426), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Roma
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to Roma's chance of winning and takes the same from Monza's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Roma
Expected goals 2.7 to 0.9. Roma score 1.8 a match against an average side (3rd in Serie A); Monza concede 1.5 (19th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Roma
Roma LWWDW, gained 9 rating points; Monza LLLWL, lost 8 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Roma
Roma won 4, drew 2 and lost 0 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
RomaMonzaRoma
7/10 over 2.5
27 scored
16 conceded
09/14
09/19
10/11
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
11/03
Monza
9/10 over 2.5
17 scored
24 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/18
10/11
10/19
10/23
10/28
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 4-0
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Roma | Draw | Monza |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roma | 49%2.04 | 3%31.75 | 1%— |
| Level | 22%4.54 | 8%12.21 | 4%24.45 |
| Monza | 4%24.39 | 3%29.76 | 5%19.05 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Roma wins0Monza wins- W Roma vs Monza 4-0
- D Monza vs Roma 1-1
- W Monza vs Roma 1-4
- W Roma vs Monza 1-0
- D Monza vs Roma 1-1
- W Roma vs Monza 3-0
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Roma's side.