Rosenborg
Model pick
63%
Fair odds 1.58
Molde
18%
Fair odds 5.51
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Rosenborg | Draw | Molde | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 63% | 19% | 18% |
| Elo model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Rosenborg
Rosenborg are rated 24 points above Molde (1462 to 1438), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Rosenborg
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Rosenborg's chance of winning and takes the same from Molde's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Rosenborg
Expected goals 2.5 to 1.3. Rosenborg score 1.6 a match against an average side (2nd in Eliteserien); Molde concede 1.7 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Rosenborg
Rosenborg WWWDW, gained 44 rating points; Molde LWWDL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Molde
Rosenborg won 2, drew 4 and lost 4 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
RosenborgMoldeRosenborg
8/10 over 2.5
28 scored
10 conceded
08/09
08/14
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/24
10/31
Molde
9/10 over 2.5
31 scored
17 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 3-1
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 2-2
- 3-0
- 3-2
- 1-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Rosenborg | Draw | Molde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rosenborg | 32%3.16 | 3%35.09 | 1%97.09 |
| Level | 24%4.11 | 9%11.10 | 6%17.36 |
| Molde | 8%13.11 | 6%16.42 | 12%8.59 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Rosenborg wins4Molde wins- L Molde vs Rosenborg 2-0
- L Molde vs Rosenborg 4-2
- D Rosenborg vs Molde 0-0
- W Rosenborg vs Molde 2-1
- D Molde vs Rosenborg 2-2
- W Rosenborg vs Molde 3-1
- D Molde vs Rosenborg 1-1
- L Molde vs Rosenborg 2-1
- D Rosenborg vs Molde 0-0
- L Molde vs Rosenborg 4-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Rosenborg's side.