Rotherham
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.32
Oldham
30%
Fair odds 3.35
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Rotherham | Draw | Oldham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| Elo model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Rotherham
Rotherham are rated 17 points above Oldham (1208 to 1190), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Rotherham
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Rotherham's chance of winning and takes the same from Oldham's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Rotherham
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.2. Rotherham score 0.7 a match against an average side (15th in League Two); Oldham concede 2.1 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Oldham
Rotherham LDDLL, lost 43 rating points; Oldham WLDLW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
RotherhamOldhamRotherham
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
19 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Oldham
4/10 over 2.5
8 scored
16 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Rotherham | Draw | Oldham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rotherham | 29%3.42 | 6%15.43 | 3%38.02 |
| Level | 13%7.75 | 16%6.26 | 13%7.56 |
| Oldham | 1%68.49 | 4%27.62 | 14%6.90 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.