Salford
Model pick
64%
Fair odds 1.55
Gillingham
14%
Fair odds 6.96
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Salford | Draw | Gillingham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 64% | 21% | 14% |
| Elo model | 63% | 24% | 14% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Salford
Salford are rated 121 points above Gillingham (1296 to 1174), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Salford
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Salford's chance of winning and takes the same from Gillingham's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Salford
Expected goals 2.0 to 0.9. Salford score 0.8 a match against an average side (4th in League Two); Gillingham concede 2.4 (21st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Salford
Salford WWWWW, gained 38 rating points; Gillingham WLDLW, gained 5 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Gillingham
Salford won 2, drew 2 and lost 4 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SalfordGillinghamSalford
6/10 over 2.5
22 scored
9 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/26
10/31
Gillingham
7/10 over 2.5
18 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Salford | Draw | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Salford | 37%2.71 | 3%31.85 | 1%— |
| Level | 24%4.19 | 13%7.96 | 6%18.08 |
| Gillingham | 4%24.63 | 5%21.23 | 8%11.78 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Salford wins4Gillingham wins- D Salford vs Gillingham 0-0
- W Gillingham vs Salford 1-2
- D Salford vs Gillingham 2-2
- L Gillingham vs Salford 1-0
- L Salford vs Gillingham 0-2
- L Gillingham vs Salford 3-1
- L Salford vs Gillingham 0-1
- W Gillingham vs Salford 0-3
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Salford's side.