Salzburg
Model pick
45%
Fair odds 2.20
LASK
31%
Fair odds 3.22
The prediction
- 1–110%
- 2–19%
- 1–27%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Salzburg | Draw | LASK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 45% | 23% | 31% |
| Elo model | 45% | 27% | 28% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Salzburg and LASK are rated almost level (1460 and 1463).
-
Home advantage Favours Salzburg
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Salzburg's chance of winning and takes the same from LASK's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Salzburg
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.5. Salzburg score 1.3 a match against an average side (3rd in Austrian Bundesliga); LASK concede 1.5 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Salzburg LWWDW, gained 20 rating points; LASK WWLWW, gained 25 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Salzburg
Salzburg won 9, drew 3 and lost 5 of the last 17 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SalzburgLASKSalzburg
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
11 conceded
09/11
09/17
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
LASK
8/10 over 2.5
21 scored
20 conceded
09/08
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/14
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Salzburg | Draw | LASK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Salzburg | 27%3.64 | 5%18.59 | 3%37.74 |
| Level | 15%6.55 | 12%8.17 | 12%8.61 |
| LASK | 3%31.75 | 5%20.00 | 17%5.81 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
9Salzburg wins5LASK wins- W LASK vs Salzburg 1-3
- L LASK vs Salzburg 2-1
- L Salzburg vs LASK 2-3
- W LASK vs Salzburg 1-5
- W Salzburg vs LASK 3-0
- L Salzburg vs LASK 1-2
- W LASK vs Salzburg 0-1
- W Salzburg vs LASK 7-1
- L LASK vs Salzburg 3-1
- W LASK vs Salzburg 0-1
17 meetings in the data. Results shown from Salzburg's side.