Sampdoria
Model pick
36%
Fair odds 2.76
Cremonese
36%
Fair odds 2.81
The prediction
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 0–19%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sampdoria | Draw | Cremonese | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Elo model | 32% | 28% | 40% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Cremonese
Cremonese are rated 96 points above Sampdoria (1399 to 1303), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sampdoria
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sampdoria's chance of winning and takes the same from Cremonese's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.3. Sampdoria score 0.9 a match against an average side (16th in Serie B); Cremonese concede 1.4 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Sampdoria WLDLL, lost 11 rating points; Cremonese WWLLD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Sampdoria won 1, drew 3 and lost 2 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SampdoriaCremoneseSampdoria
5/10 over 2.5
10 scored
18 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/07
09/13
09/19
10/09
10/18
10/24
10/27
10/31
Cremonese
4/10 over 2.5
10 scored
11 conceded
08/22
08/28
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sampdoria | Draw | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria | 21%4.71 | 5%20.20 | 2%52.36 |
| Level | 14%7.35 | 17%5.85 | 13%7.51 |
| Cremonese | 2%50.76 | 5%19.96 | 21%4.77 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Sampdoria wins2Cremonese wins- D Sampdoria vs Cremonese 0-0
- D Cremonese vs Sampdoria 1-1
- L Sampdoria vs Cremonese 1-2
- D Cremonese vs Sampdoria 1-1
- L Sampdoria vs Cremonese 2-3
- W Cremonese vs Sampdoria 0-1
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sampdoria's side.