Samsunspor
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.36
Genclerbirligi
32%
Fair odds 3.14
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Samsunspor | Draw | Genclerbirligi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Elo model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Genclerbirligi
Genclerbirligi are rated 10 points above Samsunspor (1468 to 1457), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Samsunspor
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Samsunspor's chance of winning and takes the same from Genclerbirligi's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Samsunspor
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.3. Samsunspor score 1.1 a match against an average side (16th in Süper Lig); Genclerbirligi concede 1.5 (18th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Genclerbirligi
Samsunspor LLLLL, lost 44 rating points; Genclerbirligi WLLDL, lost 6 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
SamsunsporGenclerbirligiSamsunspor
6/10 over 2.5
10 scored
26 conceded
08/17
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/18
10/24
11/01
Genclerbirligi
6/10 over 2.5
12 scored
18 conceded
08/15
08/23
08/28
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/25
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Samsunspor | Draw | Genclerbirligi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor | 27%3.68 | 6%16.95 | 3%38.76 |
| Level | 14%7.34 | 15%6.89 | 13%7.87 |
| Genclerbirligi | 2%48.31 | 4%22.68 | 17%5.87 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Samsunspor wins0Genclerbirligi wins- D Genclerbirligi vs Samsunspor 1-1
- W Samsunspor vs Genclerbirligi 2-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Samsunspor's side.