Sandefjord
Model pick
47%
Fair odds 2.15
Tromso
28%
Fair odds 3.60
The prediction
- 1–112%
- 2–19%
- 1–09%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sandefjord | Draw | Tromso | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 47% | 26% | 28% |
| Elo model | 38% | 28% | 34% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Tromso
Tromso are rated 49 points above Sandefjord (1400 to 1351), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sandefjord
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sandefjord's chance of winning and takes the same from Tromso's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sandefjord
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.2. Sandefjord score 0.9 a match against an average side (9th in Eliteserien); Tromso concede 1.9 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Sandefjord
Sandefjord WLLDW, barely moved; Tromso LLDDW, lost 22 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Tromso
Sandefjord won 2, drew 3 and lost 5 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SandefjordTromsoSandefjord
4/10 over 2.5
13 scored
13 conceded
08/07
08/16
08/30
09/04
09/14
09/20
10/10
10/18
10/25
10/31
Tromso
6/10 over 2.5
17 scored
23 conceded
08/02
08/16
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sandefjord | Draw | Tromso |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sandefjord | 29%3.42 | 5%21.19 | 2%66.23 |
| Level | 15%6.61 | 15%6.83 | 9%10.71 |
| Tromso | 3%38.02 | 5%18.83 | 17%5.74 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Sandefjord wins5Tromso wins- L Tromso vs Sandefjord 3-1
- W Sandefjord vs Tromso 1-0
- W Tromso vs Sandefjord 0-1
- L Tromso vs Sandefjord 3-0
- L Sandefjord vs Tromso 1-2
- L Tromso vs Sandefjord 1-0
- D Sandefjord vs Tromso 0-0
- L Tromso vs Sandefjord 3-0
- D Sandefjord vs Tromso 2-2
- D Sandefjord vs Tromso 1-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sandefjord's side.