Sao Paulo
Model pick
53%
Fair odds 1.90
Remo
21%
Fair odds 4.66
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sao Paulo | Draw | Remo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| Elo model | 53% | 26% | 21% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo are rated 53 points above Remo (1357 to 1304), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sao Paulo
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sao Paulo's chance of winning and takes the same from Remo's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sao Paulo
Expected goals 1.6 to 0.9. Sao Paulo score 0.7 a match against an average side (16th in Brasileirão); Remo concede 2.1 (20th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Sao Paulo DLDWW, gained 5 rating points; Remo LWLDD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Sao PauloRemoSao Paulo
3/10 over 2.5
10 scored
11 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/20
10/03
10/08
10/11
10/18
10/24
10/29
11/05
Remo
5/10 over 2.5
9 scored
18 conceded
09/01
09/06
09/15
09/19
10/07
10/10
10/18
10/23
10/29
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sao Paulo | Draw | Remo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo | 32%3.12 | 3%33.78 | 1%— |
| Level | 18%5.60 | 16%6.30 | 5%18.52 |
| Remo | 3%31.55 | 6%16.08 | 16%6.26 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Sao Paulo wins1Remo wins- L Remo vs Sao Paulo 1-0
1 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sao Paulo's side.