Sassuolo
28%
Fair odds 3.53
Napoli
Model pick
47%
Fair odds 2.11
The prediction
- 1–111%
- 1–29%
- 0–18%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sassuolo | Draw | Napoli | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 28% | 24% | 47% |
| Elo model | 28% | 28% | 44% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Napoli
Napoli are rated 122 points above Sassuolo (1574 to 1452), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sassuolo
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sassuolo's chance of winning and takes the same from Napoli's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Napoli
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.8. Sassuolo score 1.1 a match against an average side (14th in Serie A); Napoli concede 1.1 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Napoli
Sassuolo LLLLD, lost 40 rating points; Napoli LLWDW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Napoli
Sassuolo won 0, drew 1 and lost 7 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SassuoloNapoliSassuolo
8/10 over 2.5
16 scored
26 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/18
10/11
10/16
10/24
10/27
11/02
Napoli
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
18 conceded
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/28
11/01
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 1-3
- 1-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sassuolo | Draw | Napoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | 14%7.02 | 4%23.53 | 2%40.82 |
| Level | 12%8.42 | 13%7.52 | 15%6.57 |
| Napoli | 3%37.31 | 6%17.01 | 30%3.32 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Sassuolo wins7Napoli wins- L Napoli vs Sassuolo 1-0
- L Sassuolo vs Napoli 0-2
- L Sassuolo vs Napoli 1-6
- L Napoli vs Sassuolo 2-0
- L Sassuolo vs Napoli 0-2
- L Napoli vs Sassuolo 4-0
- L Napoli vs Sassuolo 6-1
- D Sassuolo vs Napoli 2-2
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sassuolo's side.