Sheffield Weds
Model pick
48%
Fair odds 2.08
Reading
26%
Fair odds 3.78
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sheffield Weds | Draw | Reading | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 48% | 25% | 26% |
| Elo model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Reading
Reading are rated 46 points above Sheffield Weds (1381 to 1336), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sheffield Weds
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sheffield Weds's chance of winning and takes the same from Reading's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sheffield Weds
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.2. Sheffield Weds score 1.0 a match against an average side (7th in League One); Reading concede 1.6 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Sheffield Weds DDLLW, lost 18 rating points; Reading LDWWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Sheffield WedsReadingSheffield Weds
4/10 over 2.5
13 scored
10 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
11/01
Reading
4/10 over 2.5
14 scored
10 conceded
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sheffield Weds | Draw | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Weds | 30%3.31 | 6%18.18 | 2%46.73 |
| Level | 16%6.22 | 15%6.84 | 11%8.94 |
| Reading | 2%42.74 | 4%23.20 | 14%7.35 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.