Shimizu S-Pulse
30%
Fair odds 3.30
Urawa Reds
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.33
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Shimizu S-Pulse | Draw | Urawa Reds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 30% | 27% | 43% |
| Elo model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Urawa Reds
Urawa Reds are rated 85 points above Shimizu S-Pulse (1368 to 1284), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Shimizu S-Pulse
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Shimizu S-Pulse's chance of winning and takes the same from Urawa Reds's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Urawa Reds
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.5. Shimizu S-Pulse score 0.6 a match against an average side (20th in J1 League); Urawa Reds concede 1.9 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Urawa Reds
Shimizu S-Pulse LLLDW, lost 18 rating points; Urawa Reds LWWWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Shimizu S-Pulse won 1, drew 2 and lost 2 of the last 5 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Shimizu S-PulseUrawa RedsShimizu S-Pulse
6/10 over 2.5
9 scored
20 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/31
Urawa Reds
7/10 over 2.5
16 scored
16 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Shimizu S-Pulse | Draw | Urawa Reds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shimizu S-Pulse | 24%4.26 | 8%12.64 | 4%24.33 |
| Level | 7%15.06 | 15%6.58 | 17%5.78 |
| Urawa Reds | 1%— | 3%36.76 | 22%4.54 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Shimizu S-Pulse wins2Urawa Reds wins- D Shimizu S-Pulse vs Urawa Reds 0-0
- L Urawa Reds vs Shimizu S-Pulse 2-1
- L Shimizu S-Pulse vs Urawa Reds 1-2
- D Urawa Reds vs Shimizu S-Pulse 1-1
- W Urawa Reds vs Shimizu S-Pulse 0-1
5 meetings in the data. Results shown from Shimizu S-Pulse's side.